Behind the Statistics

Mark Twain famously said that there are three kinds of lies:  Lies, Damn Lies, and Statistics.

Numbers don’t really mean anything; they just are what they are.  Then along comes human intelligence trying to attach meaning to the numbers.  That’s where it starts to get sticky.

The News and Observer had an article today that said that home sales were down 40% in November, compared to 2009.  I wasn’t surprised; 4th Quarter began DOA.  I had colleagues calling me, “What’s going on? Do you have any business?  I’ve got nothing.”   Agents were dead, entire offices were dead.   The N&O only found out when they got the numbers of sales closed, but people in the business knew long before that.   To have closings in November means somebody had to be writing offers and contracts in September and October — which we did not see.

However, I expect to see December and January closings up very nicely, thank you, because we HAVE seen offers and contracts written in November and December.  This is surprising, because November and December tend to be quiet even during good years.   I have actually had my busiest December ever this year, with two homes under contract and several new buyers  raising their hands for attention.

What does it mean, that’s the question.  We shall see as we move into 1st Quarter 2011, but I think it signals a return of consumer confidence, coupled with an awareness that these low interest rates are not going to last forever.  The minute the Fed sees that things have turned around, 30 year mortgages at 4.5% are going to be history — just like that.

It’s still a great time to buy, until everyone else starts buying, too.  And that may happen sooner than we think.